Valais, Switzerland, has a Weather Specialist that brings a Report on Ski Conditions
forecasts for the winter come from truly understanding the weather. Georges Nellen is one of those people, and he has a lot to say about the conditions in Switzerland, especially where skiing is concerned. He is known for his unique weather statistics and the reliability of his predictions. He belongs to the ranks of native Swiss weather forecasters and regularly succeeds in predicting the arrival of the first important snowfall.
It was no different this year. It is small wonder therefore that winter sports enthusiasts and tourist agencies are equally eager to hear the
forecast of Georges Nellen (age 72) from Naters.
What will the weather be like this winter?
Interview with Georges Nellen
Georges Nellen, why can people rely on your weather forecasts?
I have studied Valais weather closely for 35 years and followed the day to day statistics from my
measurement station in Naters (680m a.s.l.). In all these years I haven’t missed a single day of recording
temperature, wind and water – thanks of course to the invaluable support of my wife Roswitha and my
family. From the totality of the statistics a 7-year cycle appears. It is interesting to note that weather
forecasts were already made in this way during the Middle Ages as shown in a book from a monastery. I
first came to know of it after I had already detected the cycle.
Do these statistics suffice in themselves to provide reliable forecasts?
Figures are only a part of the story. In addition there are observations of nature that I make myself and for
example our farmers’ opinions and experiences. Last but not least I study the climate. Climatic changes
interest me enormously – but always in relation to Valais. The influence of the Gulf Stream is very
important in order to make my half year long range forecast for our region. It is colder now in Europe on
account of its momentary weakening. The average temperatures in the period 1990 – 2000 rose slightly and
winters were milder but we have seen that since 2000 the average temperature each year has fallen
somewhat. On top of that we have to take into consideration the reduced activity of the sun that gives
science much to think about. There was a similar situation in the C17th which resulted in a small ice age. It
is quite possible that we are again standing on the doorstep of a small ice age. And I am convinced that I
will live to see the Valaisan glaciers grow again. I am not going to go before…
What do technically-equipped meteorologists have to say about your kind of weather observation?
It is clear that they are professionals and I am an amateur but there are no adversaries or conflicts. They
accept me and I have very good relations with many meteorologists. The important difference is that they
make daily and short-term forecasts, I concentrate on long-range forecasts.
In Valais you are known for the reliability of your forecasts. Would you bet on them?
No. In the long run a great occurrence anywhere in the world, such as an earthquake or the eruption of a
volcano, can have a direct effect on the climate and a corresponding influence on the weather. I cannot
predict such great alterations.
You were depot manager for the Valaisan beer brewery,
therefore you were not professionally dependent on the
weather like, for example, a mountain guide. How did you come
to be interested in the weather?
Oh yes! The drinks industry is closely related to the weather. We
even had to keep statistics on it with regard to how much beer we
sold. I used to say to my colleagues at the time: “it depends on the
weather”. We always included the weather against the sales of
beer. And that is how it began. In the meantime I have spent over
25,000 hours on my hobby and for five years I had my own weather
broadcast on “Rottu” the Upper Valais local radio.
Do you often receive weather enquiries from event organisers or
mountain railways?
That happens. I even had a young couple who wanted to know
whether the sun would shine on their wedding day… For the most part however the enquiries come from tourism-related circles. Following my retirement from the drinks’
business I worked as a tourist guide for 10 years. From that I know how important the weather is for
tourism. And because tourism is extremely important for Valais, I am very happy to do this work.
Valais is considered the most reliable region in the Alps for snow cover. Can you explain this?
The mountains play a key role in Valaisan weather. The Rhone Valley is protected by the Bernese and
Valaisan Alps. Often clouds just don’t make it across our beautiful 4000m peaks. This is confirmed by an
average of 220 days of sunny weather per year. In spite of that the glaciers maintain a certain winter
reservoir throughout the summer. The necessary cold temperature is preserved through the advantageous
high altitude and thereby precipitation in our mountains in the cold time of year falls as snow which then
feeds the glaciers anew.
Finally, we would of course like to know… what does the coming winter hold?
For the evolution of this winter, my natural cold water glacier weather station in a gallery on the Simplon
is an important clue. This indicates a winter with plenty of snow, just like the last two years. All good
things come in threes! Therefore we can expect a long winter with up to 6 months of snow in the
mountains. Following the first snow falls at the beginning of November the white mantle that will fall on
20th November will descend to the valley floor. It will give a turbulent start to the winter. As soon as the
snow settles it will become very cold. In January, February and March above all we can look forward to
really cold, sunny winter weather in Valais.
Georges Nellen, thank you very much for the Interview.
For current Valaisan weather:
http://www.valais.ch/en/weather.cfm?
November 18, 2009
Posted in: Switzerland