Air Passenger Forecasts March 2007 and Thereafter

The March forecast, based on separate projections for 726 airports around the world, strongly suggests that the trends in both international and domestic travel demand are once again firmly upwards with growth of 5.0% expected in the month. The record of 2006 is of lower growth in the second half than in the first with two strongly positive monthly blips, the last of which was in December. That alone contributes to the improved first and second Quarter prospects but it also raises the question of whether the business may be about to embark on another growth phase.

The Second Quarter and the Full Year
In Quarter Two world passenger numbers are expected to advance by 5.2%, with by far the faster growth likely to be demonstrated in the international sector with a year on year increase of 6.9% compared with 4.2% domestically. For the year as a whole this means that travel demand will be up by 5.0% in total and by 6.1% for international journeys. This renewed strength can only lend support to the vocal green and political lobbies in their demands for travel controls through the tax mechanism and especially so in the European region. While there is no sign presently that the political will exists to implement such an initiative, the media pressure on the industry will increase and that pressure, as the relatively recent experience of British Airways in the UK underlines, is not to be under-estimated.
December results from the leading international airports have provided a significant tonic for the short-term number trend in passenger numbers; the end 2006 reading was 6.6% which is the highest since last July. That, combined with growth rate stability since the middle of last year, helps to produce a 7.5% rise in international passenger demand in the month of March.

For the first Quarter as a whole numbers will be up by 7.1%; in the second Quarter the forecast rate of increase is only very slightly lower at 6.9%. Thus the question arises whether December’s results represent a turning point in the trend or just a positive blip. The blip in September last, while not as strong as in December, failed to disturb the 2006 pattern of second half growth lower than the first half. Indeed, a rising trend through the first three months of this year could well push annual international passenger growth up towards the 7% point mark.
 
Source: www.air4casts.com/

February 12, 2007   Posted in: Airlines & Railways